in July, Volgograd residents promised tropical weekdays

The weather forecast for midsummer was made by climatologist Anatoly Sudakov.

Photo: Dmitry Rogulin / City Esti

June is coming to an end – one of the most comfortable months of the year in Volgograd. It is considered summer, but in fact the astronomical summer does not begin until the first day of the third decade. This year it happened on June 21 at 12:13:49. at Moscow time. At that moment, the center of the solar disk was at the northernmost point of the ecliptic – a large circle of the celestial sphere, along which the sun’s annual motion relative to the stars, visible from the earth, takes place. What more interesting happened in the celestial office during the past month, and what astronomical phenomena and weather phenomena await us in July, says the geographer and climatologist Anatoly Sudakov.

Gray nights go north

The summer solstice in our area is associated with such a phenomenon as gray nights, when astronomical twilight, where the center of the solar disk falls below the horizon below 12 degrees, does not occur. On these nights, under good atmospheric conditions in the absence of artificial light sources, the general contours of the objects are discernible up to the horizon line. Unfortunately, there are only fourteen gray nights in Volgograd at kilometer zero. The last one was on June 27. But those who want to extend this pleasure can go to Dubovka, where the gray nights end on July 2. And in Kamyshin, the last night will be July 11th.

– Despite the fact that since the middle of the last decade, an era of meridional atmospheric circulation has begun, where cloudiness increases, precipitation increases and it becomes less hot, Volgograd residents do not have to complain about the lack of sun and heat. The duration of the sun in June and July is maximum. In Volgograd during these months there are 310 hours each. In June, July and August, there are no days in our city when the sun does not appear in the sky for at least a few minutes, says the researcher.

In July, the dose of direct solar radiation is 13.25 times higher than in January, so wide-brimmed hats, sunglasses and sometimes even an umbrella help to avoid sunburn. They are not safe. And if protective measures are ignored over the years, due to excessive solar radiation, skin cancer and cataracts can develop. White-eyed and blue-eyed faces are particularly vulnerable, and redheads, who usually have the thinnest skin, are even more at risk.

Photo: Olga Bagrova / City News

Under the lid of the atmospheric boiler

During the first two calendar months of summer, 9.1 times more heat enters the earth’s surface in Volgograd than it radiates into space. Therefore, conditions are created for the formation of a local heating center in the Lower Volga region. Expands when heated
air on the earth’s surface rises to the upper troposphere. At the same time it cools, condenses, its mass increases and a kind of boiler forms near the earth’s surface, where the temperature begins to rise.

– The summer air cyclone’s warm air spreads easily clockwise from the center and prevents less hot air masses from other regions from entering the heat center. And during the mass of cooled air that lies above, the surface layer of the atmosphere heats up even more. The famous Volgograd inferno is coming, – Sudakov warns. – It is true that the situation in 1972, which has already been forgotten by the public and in 2010 not yet completely forgotten, when such a blocking anticyclone determined the synoptic situation for more than two months, will certainly not happen again. In fact, the weather in our region is now determined by the transfer of air masses from south to north and less often from north to south in a direction close to the meridian.

Of course, this does not exclude periods of intense heat, above 30 ° C, in extreme cases up to 38-39 ° C, but long-term thermal excesses should not be expected. These scenarios will not be typical of our region until the middle of the century.

Almost like in the tropics

Volgograd is located in the southern part of the temperate climate zone. But tropical air in our city is not uncommon, and not only in summer, but also during the winter season. In the latter, more and more often, since the modern era of meridional circulation was formed as a southern, with
the dominance of submeridional transport of air masses in the direction of the North Pole. In general, weather and climatic conditions in the Volgograd region are largely influenced by synoptic processes developing on the Eastern European branch of the polar front. In summer, it turns from northeast to southwest and extends in the direction from the Black Sea to the White Sea and the Kara Sea.

Open to all winds, the Lower Volga region can be affected by air masses of any origin in all seasons, except the equatorial ones: Arctic, polar and tropical. The latter may be of continental origin (formed within Central Asia) or marine (formed across the Atlantic, including the Mediterranean and Black Seas included in it). In the first case, dry dusty air dominates the region, hot cloudless weather occurs, dust storms can occur; in the second, lush cumulus clouds are observed in the sky, the humidity increases significantly, – the climatologist comments on the situation.

As for the summer months, at this time in our city during the earlier zone period of atmospheric circulation, which lasted from the early 80s –
90s last century until the middle of the 10s. Today, under conditions of stable long-lived anticyclones, local dry tropical air formed above the sun’s warm day surface. In the first phase of Brikner’s intrasecular climate cycle, which corresponds to the current climate era of zonal circulation, the touring variant is realized: tropical air enters the region mainly from the Mediterranean. And judging by the weather in June, this is far from the worst option.

Intrigue around the shoulder

But the famous Volgograd showers are still associated with the release of Atlantic cyclones in the region. During the third decade of June, they just did not reach Volgograd a bit. The abyss of heaven opened up over the nearby Saratov region. But let us not be upset that the forecast for the rain in June did not materialize. The hope of this spectacular natural phenomenon has not yet died in the hearts of local weather forecasters, although, of course, for the period from the second half of July to the third decade of August, the chances of a tropical downpour are less.

– The Mediterranean air is not dry, it can contain large amounts of water vapor. However, due to high temperatures, the so-called saturation point is not reached, where the relative humidity rises to 100%, and even with lush clouds, the chance of heavy rain is small. But less hot
The Baltic Sea air saturates faster and Scandinavian cyclones produce heavy rain. But there is one circumstance that removes all guarantees for summer showers in the Lower Volga region. This is the Voeikov axis – the “back” of the high-pressure belt that stretches across Eurasia approximately along the 50th parallel almost throughout Eurasia, – explains Anatoly Sudakov. – North of it there is the transfer of moist Atlantic air from west to east, in the south the weather is determined by the penetration of tropical air. The Lower Volga region receives either dry air from Central Asia, or more humid, but not saturated with water vapor from the Mediterranean.

Like all barric formations in the atmosphere, the Voeikov axis is quasi-stationary, that is, its position during each particular year can be either a few degrees north or a few degrees south of the long-term average position. Let me remind you that Volgograd is located at 48.5 ° N, that is, close to this ridge. But if the axis moves at least 100-200 km north, there will be no significant precipitation in the southeastern half of the Volgograd region. And if it shifts just as much to the south, the situation will be completely different. So far, the first option has been implemented.

Photo: Dmitry Rogulin / City News

Climate travel by place of residence

June gave the inhabitants of Volgograd very pleasant weather in Crimea on the Black Sea coast. It is true that the level of solar radiation is still lower in our country. But the cloudiness was an absolute resort. Many residents of the city were surprised to feel with their own skin that with higher humidity warm weather is less tolerated. It was true that it was not so hot either: the deviation from the average monthly temperature from the norm was only 1.3 ° C. The highest temperature was recorded yesterday (+33.9 ° С). But of course this is not the limit. July is the hottest month of the summer.

– The Black Sea weather is coming to an end, and during the first decade we will have cloudless weather with a merciless sun, – warns the researcher. – It is true that there are no conditions for the formation of an anticyclone on the Lower Volga. An atmospheric front passes again through Volgograd, this time a warm one. The formation of local dry tropical air will not occur, and the weather will be determined by the air masses that the heavenly office will write for our region.

Meanwhile, the polar air in the temperate zone enters the region, which over the daytime surface in our region is already well-baked by the sun
warms up, moves away from the saturation point of water vapor and cancels the latest forecasters’ warnings of heavy rain. At least in Volgograd, their probability is now extremely low. During the first ten days of Volgograd, the weather of Antalya type awaits. So we do not need the Turkish coast, on the Volga it is not worse now.

From Antalya to Pattaya

By the way, those who live or are located a few dozen meters from the Volga and reservoirs can now observe an interesting phenomenon: the Volga or local breeze – a wind that changes direction twice a day. During the day it blows from the side of the water surface towards the coast, at night it is the opposite.
Before dawn and sunset, this wonderful summer breeze subsides for a while.

“In fact, winds are typical of the coast of inland seas,” comments Sudakov. – There they determine the weather to several tens of kilometers deep from the water’s edge. And our artificial seas are smaller, and the wind is very weak. But it’s still interesting. You can get acquainted with this weather phenomenon at the place of residence.

During the second or third decade of July, two scenarios are most likely. First, the formation of a local anticyclone as a breeding ground, which will be regenerated due to the influx of continental tropical air from the Central Asian region. The weather in it will be clear, the air will be dusty, as on the shores of the Aral Sea, which has been dry for a long time. Secondly: a massive breach of tropical air masses from the Mediterranean. In this case, residents of Volgograd will experience humid heat and cloudy weather, as in the resorts of Thailand.

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